WE'VE BEEN DEALING WITH THIS FOR TOO LONG! FINALLY DEBKA FILE REPORTS PARTIAL TRUTH!
The most up-to-date intelligence predictions of US nuclear experts is that by the end of 2009, Iran will have stocked enough weapons-grade fuel to build three nuclear bombs. (SEE NASIC REPORT BELOW)
The first will be ready for assembly by the time Barack Obama is sworn in as US president on January 20, 2009; the second shortly after Israel’s February 10, 2009 general election produces a new prime minister, and the third by the end of the year.
Iran may deny the latest IAEA conclusion that it has stockpiled 630 kg of low-enriched uranium, enough to upgrade a nuclear weapon. But Tehran’s limited on-and-off cooperation with the nuclear watchdog leaves it wide open to the suspicion of a secret location churning out enriched uranium far from the declared Natanz facility. (AND THEY STILL DENY THAT THEY HAVEN'T VIOLATED THE NPT TREATY WHEN THEY CLEARLY DID ALONG WITH THE NORTH KOREANS LAST YEAR IN SYRIA)
So what happened to the pledges made by the world powers over the years to keep nuclear weapons out of the Islamic Republic’s hands, including declarations by US and Israeli leaders that their military options remained “on the table?” Those pledges came from Israeli leaders on both sides of the aisle – prime minister Ehud Olmert, foreign minister Tzipi Livni (who has replaced him as Kadima chairman), defense minister Ehud Barak and opposition Likud leader Binyamin Netanyahu.
DEBKAfile’s political analysts comment: Their pledges have turned out to be as credible as the subsequence assurances of Olmert and his finance minister Ronnie Bar-On that the global economic crisis had skipped Israel and the public’s savings and investments were safe.
This week, Israelis woke up to find one-third of their pension funds wiped out - and a nuclear-armed Iran on their horizon.
Next year, Tehran may stage an underground atomic test to show Muslims everywhere what the Shiites can do and confront the new US and Israeli governments with its unstoppable nuclear capability. That is unless Olmert, Livni, and Barak are moved to fight the strong trend toward a Likud election victory by going belatedly after Iran’s nuclear facilities in the short weeks remaining for the ballot.
However, although the Olmert government had the Syrian reactor bombed in September 2007 while it was still under construction, DEBKAfile’s political sources doubt whether they are politically and personally capable today of repeating that success against Iran.
Barak is consistent in ducking military action: He lost power in 2000 after refusing to pre-empt Yasser Arafat’s planned Palestinian terror war against Israel. As defense minister, he has declined to halt Hizballah’s rocket build-up in Lebanon or put the lid on the Palestinian missile offensive from Gaza. He preferred a shaky truce, which left Hamas and fellow-fundamentalist Palestinian terrorists backed by Iran and Syria to violate at will. This policy is backed by Olmert and Livni.
Saturday, Nov. 22, Hizballah launched a large-scale military exercise in South Lebanon, including in areas policed by UN peacemakers which are barred to Hizballah militiamen under UN Security Council Resolution 1701 which Livni helped draft in 2006.
According to DEBKAfile’s military sources, the years from 2002 to 2006, when Ariel Sharon and his faithful disciples Ehud Olmert and Tzipi Livni, were then in power were the best time for halting Iran’s race for a nuclear bomb by military action. Now it will be harder. Their favorite mantra was that George W. Bush was “the friendliest US president Israel had ever had.” He could be counted on to halt Iran’s nuclearization if Israel made the running with territorial concessions that opened the door to a Washington-sponsored peace with the Palestinians.
This claim validated Israel’s unilateral pullout from the Gaza Strip in 2005 at a time when it would have been easier – and smarter - to focus on destroying Iran’s nuclear facilities than today. Likud leader, Netanyahu was minister of finance in the Sharon government, until he quit later over the controversial Gaza disengagement.
Livn, closely aligned with Condoleezza Rice and Washington's ineffectual drive for painful sanctions, played her part in this strategy with her favorite formula: A nuclear Iran is a world problem which should be left to the international community to solve.
Today, the Israeli public, on the evidence of the UN nuclear watchdog, can justly claim it was conned by its leaders. The Jewish state’s most active enemy, the terrorist sponsor in Tehran, was allowed to go all the way towards acquiring the ultimate weapon of destruction.
Instead of admitting they missed the train, those leaders and “the international community,” continue to try and lull troubled spirits with more deception, pretending that the peril of a nuclear-armed Iran can still be averted by more of their failed diplomacy.
And certain “experts” were enlisted to play down Iran’s delivery capability by dismissing its new Sejil ballistic missile, test-fired on Nov. 12, as no better than the Shehab-3 as a vehicle for delivering a nuclear warhead.
Israeli and Western missile experts familiar with Iran’s arsenal define the Sejil test a breakthrough in its missile technology.
The missile’s unique features were disclosed in the last issue of DEBKA-Net-Weekly out on Friday, Nov. 21, 2009.
Israeli government publicists are now leaking a new thesis to tame reporters: A nuclear-armed Iran should not cause alarm. A quote from a closed symposium by an unidentified official set the tone: “We mustn’t be scared by a little Persian with a big bomb.”
Having failed to aver this existential danger to Israel, they were now trying to convince people that the holocaust denier Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and his nuclear bomb can be safely ignored. It will be left to the Israeli voter to decide how far he and she are ready to be gulled again when they go to the polls in February.
*********Not officially translated********
TRANSLATION FROM RUSSIAN TO ENGLISH (NOT GOOD THOUGH)
NO LONGER CLASS -- DEBKA GOT IT OUT FINALLY!
NASIC - This document was processed by the Information Exploitation Squadron, National Air & Space Intelligence Center (NASIC/DAK), Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, Ohio And can be found in NASIC’s Textual Information System
Originator: Anatoliy KULIKOV
Distribution : Not Applicable KT: Air-Space Defense (Coden: VOOBA)
2008-08 РАНЕЕ КАМПАНИЮ ПЛАНИРОВАЛОСЬ НАЧАТЬ ВЕСНОЙ 2008 г
PREVIOUSLY THE CAMPAIGN WAS PLANNED TO BEGIN IN THE SPRING OF 2008
THE RED DOTS ARE IRANIAN NUCLEAR REACTORS
Russian Transmission Unedited Translation
Principal striking power Navy of the USA - nuclear powered aircraft carriers.
The Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI) is at the center of world politics. The reason for this is the increasing military political ambitions of Teheran, which alarms the world community.
These ambitions are based on ideological postulate Khomeini, financial and economic, and also military factors. In last year Iran, projecting as energy donor of many world powers, found a comparatively significant financial and economic power.
This became the base for president Makhmud Akhmadinezhad's that to state about Iran as about the world center of Islamic civilization as about the firm champion for the ideals of Islam, and unite all Moslems against global Zionism and American imperialism as the super-power of region.
Under the banner of Khomeinism and with the leadership of the presidential grouping of the Shiite radicals of the IRI (Islamic Republic of Iran) in the political- ideological plan returns to the first years Islamic of revolution.
The radicalization of the clerical regime in Iran from the moment of controlling authority Makhmud Aakhmadinejad, perseverance in the realization of suspicious and questionable nuclear program, are unprecedented the militarization of the country, stirring up anti-Semitism, explicit fight against Palestinian-Israeli peace process - here the addend politicians of the present regime of IRI. This direct manner is connected with three political positions of Teheran, that cause special uneasiness.
The first. The creation of industrial infrastructure capable of producing a nuclear weapon. Talking about the process of uranium enrichment by means of centrifuges and production of plutonium in a heavy reactor, built in Arak. (THE EXACT REPLICA OF USING MORE WATER JUST LIKE THE RUSSIAN ONES)
NATANZ ENRICHMENT FACILITY
At present in Iran in a uranium enrichment plant in Natanz they actively operate 12 cascade centrifuges in 164 units. "The multipurpose nuclear-powered submarines Navy of the USA, equipped with the cruise underwater-launched missiles of the type “Tomakhok”, are powerful means for the impact on the coastal targets of potential enemy." QUOTED TEXTS
In the photograph - APL OF SSN755 “of Miami” during the exercises in the Arabian sea. (SORRY NO PHOTOGRAPH)
That is, approximately up to 2000 centrifuges. It is planned to bring their number first to three, then it is more than to 54 thousand according to the data of nuclear physicists, for the production of highly concentrated enriched uranium (order 90% enrichment) on 164 centrifuges for several atomic bombs are required more than decades. During the introduction into the operation of cascades into three thousand centrifuges this period is shortened up to one year. With the work of 54 thousand centrifuges it is possible to be packed in several weeks. Iran already tested the method of uranium enrichment to the level, with which it is possible to use in nuclear weapon. (THIS IS AN INCREDIBLE CAPACITY -- CONTINUE BELOW AFTER THE QUOTE)
Concerning the constructed Arak reactor with a power of 40 Mega, in the opinion of the scientist- nuclear physicists, with its help in the year it is possible to carry out plutonium filling for two bombs. In the opinion of the specialists, the nuclear program of Iran is the harassing fact, which threatens the mode of nonproliferation of nuclear weapons. (THIS IS WHEN THEY GOT HELPED FROM THE NORTH KOREANS -- THE NORTH KOREANS HAVE A 50 MEGA POWER PROCESSOR REACTOR)
The second. Rocket program. In the opinion of the specialists for the rocket armament, at present is most the dynamically developing branch in Iran is the missile industry. The leadership of the country sets for itself as a goal to create by 2009. the most powerful rocket arsenal in the region. At present Iranian VS are armed with of rocket “Shekhab-3” with the flying range to 2 thousand km the pricking up ears factor it is the fact that actively developing its rocket technologies, Teheran categorically rejects to recognize the international mode of the control of rocket technologies.
SHAHAB-3 RANGE AND EXPANDING - CAN BE USED AS A GUN-TYPED BULLET
The third. Support of radical Islamic groupings. Iranian help to religious extremists beyond the line carries the vseobemlyushchiy nature:
Financing, diplomatic and political support, the preparation for ideological and military personnel, delivery of armament, military equipment, ammunition and equipment, and also humanitarian deliveries. This concerns, first of all such organizations and combat groups as “the Hezbollah”, Hamas, “Islamic Jihad”, and also the Iraqi Shiite groupings (first of all, “Makhdi Army” of Islamic radical al Sadr), which are struggled with the coalition forces and the official government of Iraq.
Undoubtedly, the world community disturb the questions, connected from current political leadership the IRI (Islamic Republic of Iran), in which nuclear problem occupies priority place. Iran does not desire to answer all questions of the IAEA. The complete, comprehensive and truthful communications from the Iranian side could guarantee the absence of military component or elements of the dual purpose in the nuclear program the IRI.
The high-ranking officials of many countries are included in the solution of this problem, several international organizations. No longer one year continues the process of calls for the purpose to convince Iran to satisfy requirements the IAEA, the UN Security Council and to guarantee the absence of military component in his nuclear program.
At present the international community in the person of the UN Security Council, IAEA and “six” country- negotiators on Iran (the constants of the UN Security Council and Germany) requires of Teheran as the measure for the creation of confidence to the peaceful directivity of its nuclear program to introduce moratorium to the works on uranium enrichment. This would become base for the telephone-box process, which would solve problem in the interests of both Iran and nonproliferation of nuclear weapons as a whole.
“Six” with respect to Iran operate in two parallel directions.
The first: it continues to discuss further possible sanctions against Iran.In this case the active phase of the consideration of the content of the new anti-Iranian resolution of the UN Security Council.
The second: simultaneously with this within the frames of the same process “six” proposes the universal packet of stimuli, including help in the realization of peaceful nuclear program and measure for the granting to Iran of access to the International markets and investments. However, Iran ignores all sentences of the UN Security Council and IAEA. Teheran rejects the resolutions of the UN Security Council, which draft to introduce moratorium to the works on uranium enrichment, which led to the stiffening of sanctions. The period of last resolution elapsed; but Iran did not satisfy its requirements.
At present by the UN Security Council is conducted the work on the following, by all appearances, an even more stiffening sanctions in the relation IRI (Islamic Republic of Iran). One should note that to those operating at this time to financial and economic measures against the IRI (Islamic Republic of Iran) has already been connected the almost 80 countries, which by very negatively affects the development of the economy of ran and respectively, at the standard of living of population.
The gasoline crisis, which struck the country became the index of the complication of economic position in the IRI (Islamic Republic of Iran) by past summer. In the capital of Iran the disorders, caused by the introduction of rationing gasoline, occurred. Economists, in that number and Iranian, do not doubt, that the crisis became the result of the ineffective policy of President Akhmadinezhad's government.
Economic situation in the country deteriorated in two years of its presidency. Thus, in the present year an inflation rate will compose 19% against 16% in 2007. Prices of the basic products of feed grew two or three. The cost of the lease of dwelling grew two. The unemployment rate, according to the different evaluations, composes 11% according to official data and 30% by subject of the World Bank. On its span expressed itself recently at the council session regarding the expediency of the decisions adopted its head, former President of the country the Ali- Akbar Khashemi Rafsanjani, after naming this national calamity. In turn, personal representative ayatollah Khameni into the province Koch -kiluye and Baerakhmad of ayatollah Karamatola Maleki-Khosseini expressed warning
SUMMARY – NO MATTER HOW MUCH WE PARALYZE IRAN FINANCIALLY/ECONOMICALLY/ETC. THEIR PROGRAMS ARE STILL ADVANCING AT AN UNFEASIBLE RATE. MOSCOW WILL NOT STOP AIDING THEM. ISRAEL HAS HIS TRIGGER ON THAAD – DOHA IS THE ONLY ONE I KNOW OF RIGHT NOW.
88 AEROSPACE DEFENSE of №1 38 2008 “The enemies of Iran cannot cause harm to the matter of Islamic revolution, and in a nuclear question they mobilized all their forces in order not to allow the transformation of Iran into the nuclear country. But you will look, in what they now position, and in what position Iranian people”.Makhmud Akhmadinezhad, the President of the Islamic republic of Iran
HERE ARE SOME MORE PIRCTURES FOR YOU TO PONDER
I WILL ADD TURKEY TO THE PROBLEM OF ENTRY POINTS -- AND TO THINK THAT TURKEY IS PART OF NATO!!
BUSHEHR BELOW - COMPLETELY RE-BUILT UNDER THE SOVIET MODEL AND OPERATING AT FULL CAPACITY
ADDITIONAL INFO ON OTHER IRANIAN REACTORS
I'M JUST HAPPY DEBKA REPORTED ON THIS... THIS IS A THREAT NOT ONLY TO ISRAEL OF COURSE....
WHETHER YOU THINK THIS IS A REAL THREAT OR NOT, IT DOESN'T MATTER. THEIR PROGRAMS ARE WELL IN PLACE AND VERY ADVANCED. WE HAVE A SAYING THAT WE MUST ALWAYS PREPARE FOR THE WORST AND MISTAKES WERE MADE IN THE PAST BY NOT BELIEVING IN THE MAD MAN, HITLER!!
ALSO, EVER WONDER WHY IRAN HAS SYRIA UNDER HIS WING AND ALSO WHY THEY REALLY WANT IRAQ?
FINALLY, I'M TRYING TO FIND THE ARTICLE WHERE THE SOMALI "PIRATE" HAD A DIRTY BOMB IN ONE OF THE SHIPS... THIS WAS A CLEAR TRANSFER OF AN IRANIAN WEAPON TO TERRORISTS ORGS.